British Medical Bulletin 52:12-21 (1996)
© 1996 The British Council
research-article |
Mortality from smoking worldwidea
*ICRF/MRC/BHF Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Harkness Building Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UK
Tobacco or Health, World Health Organization Geneva, Switzerland
Epidemiology Unit, American Cancer Society Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Abstract
Estimates are made of the numbers and proportions of death attributable to smoking in 44 developed countries in 1990. In developed countries as a whole, tobacco was responsible for 24% of all male deaths and 7% of all female deaths, rising to over 40% in men in some former socialist economies and 17% in women in the USA. The average loss of life for all cigarette smokers was about 8 years and for those whose deaths were attributable to tobacco about 16 years. Trends in mortality attributable to tobacco differed by half in men since 1965; in others it was continuing to increase. In women, the proportion was mostly increasing, almost universally in old age. Mortality not attributable to smoking decreased since 1955 in all OECD (Organization for European Collaboration and Development) countries, by up to 60% in men and more in women. No precise estimate can be made of the number of deaths attributable to smoking in undeveloped countries, but the prevalence of smoking suggests that it will be large. In the world as a whole, some 3 million deaths a year are estimated to be attributable to smoking, rising to 10 million a year in 30–40 years' time.
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